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Start with a companySpaceX · SPCX · Public sample · Jun 11, 2026
Read the full reportEstimated value
$44.23
Market price at run
$135.00
Upside / downside
-67.2%
Method
Discounted cash flow
From the report
The DCF model values SpaceX at $44.23 per share. The IPO prices it at $135.00. The difference is not primarily about discount rates or terminal growth assumptions - those are secondary. The difference is about how much probability you assign to SpaceX successfully executing across Starship commercialization, Starlink Mobile, durable high-margin AI compute contracts, Terafab chip manufacturing, and orbital data centers, all within a 10-year window, while managing $29 billion in debt, a governance structure that limits minority shareholder protection, and competition from the most well-capitalized technology companies in history.
If you assign high probability to all of those outcomes simultaneously, $135 may be defensible. If you weight them as the probability-adjusted outcomes that the engineering timelines and capital requirements suggest, $44 is where the math lands.
Both files use the same valuation assumptions. Sample figures reflect the data available when this report ran.